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Market Commentary

Market Commentary

May 29, 2014
10-YEAR NOTES   100-19(+02)
FN 3.5% COUPON   103-08.5 (-02)
SUPPORT   2.600%
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The preliminary estimate for GDP showed a larger decline for the first quarter of the year than the advanced estimate released last month, down -1.0% vs. -0.1% prior (consensus -0.5%). The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter is attributed to negative contributions from private inventory investment, exports, non-residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Personal consumption came in line with expectations, up +3.1% vs. +3.0% prior. Initial jobless claims came in at 300K vs. 326K prior and continuing claims posted 2631K vs. 2648K prior (revised). Pending home sales are expected to slow to +1.0% following March's jump of +3.4% (MoM). 10-Year notes broke through the 2.47% resistance level yesterday, and the curve is opening flat to yesterday's close. Daily momentum is bullish and overbought.

This Week's Events:

05/29 GDP Annualized QoQ 05:30 1Q S -0.5% -1.0% 0.1% -
05/29 Jobless Claims 05:30 May 24 318K 300K 326K 327K
05/29 Continuing Claims 05:30 May 17 2650K 2631K 2653K 2648K
05/29 Pending Home Sales (MoM) 07:00 April 1.0% - 3.4% -
05/29 Pending Home Sales (YoY) 07:00 April -8.7% - -7.4% -
05/30 Personal Income 05:30 April 0.3% - 0.5% -
05/30 Personal Spending 05:30 April 0.2% - 0.9% -
05/30 Chicago PMI 06:45 May 61.0 - 63.0 -



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