Yesterday’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators grew a mere 0.1%, following an promising reading in November at +1.0%. The report showed strength in future credit conditions, growth in manufacturing orders, improving stock market conditions and may point to a long awaited rise in borrowing. Conversely, unemployment claims, building permits, consumer expectations and slow economic growth weighed down the Index. The recent string of soft economic data could point to limited stimulus withdrawal by the Fed which should keep interest rates down. MBS continues to underperform today and the curve is bull flattening with 2s10s down 2 bps while 5-Year and 7-Year yields are down 3-4 bps. We have another empty calendar today and should expect little market volatility.
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